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As part of the study, the results of voting in the gubernatorial elections in the Kaliningrad region, held in September 2024, were analyzed. The purpose of the study is to develop and test a statistical model of election results based on specific voting data, built using binomial distributions. Discrete probability distributions of the number of voters who voted in the one percent turnout and percentage of votes for the candidate are constructed. By comparing the voting results, the relationship between the electoral support of the candidate leading in the election and the overall voter turnout in the Kaliningrad region, the city of Kaliningrad and the districts of the Kaliningrad region outside the regional center was studied. The city of Kaliningrad is characterized by homogeneous, independent of turnout, voting for the leading candidate in a wide range of electoral turnout. The thesis is expressed about the importance of taking into account the heterogeneity of the data studied in different territories when implementing statistical analysis of elections. The prospects of statistical research in the context of elections are discussed. The theoretical significance of the study is related to the introduction into scientific use of the developed statistical model constructed using binomial distributions. The practical significance of the presented research is determined by the description of the methodology for the practical application of the developed statistical model in elections at various levels.
elections, electoral turnout, percentage of votes for a candidate, probability distribution, binomial distribution, plateau, electoral heterogeneities, electoral anomalies
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