Probabilistic assessment of social system efficiency in the face  of negative factors

Olga Dvornikova; Vasily Samokhin; Sergey Dvornikov

doi:doi:10.30987/2658-4026-2022-2-101-107

UDC 001.891

Probabilistic assessment of social system efficiency in the face of negative factors

Published в Ergodesign · Volume 2022, Issue 2, 2022 · Pages 101–107 · Rubrics: MANAGEMENT IN ORGANIZATIONAL SYSTEMS

DOI 10.30987/2658-4026-2022-2-101-107

Received: 08.06.2022 Accepted: 30.06.2022 Published: 30.06.2022

Authors

Olga Dvornikova ¹ · Vasily Samokhin ² · Sergey Dvornikov ³ iD

1 The Bonch-Bruevich Saint-Petersburg State University of Telecommunications (psychologist)
Sankt-Peterburg, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation

2 Budyonny Military Academy of the Signal Corps (professor)
Sankt-Peterburg, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation

3 Saint-Petersburg state university of aerospace instrumentation (department of design and technology of electronic and laser devices, senior lecturer)
, Military academy of communications named after Marshal of the Soviet Union S.M. Budyonny (department of radio communications, professor)
Saint-Petersburg, Russian Federation

ABSTRACT

An approach to the quantitative assessment of the open social system efficiency of a non-technical nature is con-sidered. The task is formulated from the standpoint of assessing complex indicators that take into consideration the conditions of external influences on an open non-technical system. Formalizing the formulated problem is carried out within the framework of the reliability theory methods. A two-parameter generalized analytical expression is obtained for calculating a probabilistic assessment of the open system efficiency, taking into consideration the nature of destructive impacts. An approach to calculating the probability of failure-free operation of such systems is substantiated, considering the frequency of failures caused by negative consequences from destructive impacts. The results of analytical modelling are presented in assessing the probabilistic indicators of open non-technical systems, in which the degradation of ongoing processes can be described on the basis of an exponential law. The processes of a non-technical nature corresponding to the specified distribution are given, which include the aging of information, the level of residual knowledge, the number of divorces by the number of years lived, motivational stability, etc., characteristic of such areas as pedagogy and psychology. The author considers an example of applying a reasonable approach in relation to the “burnout syndrome” based on analysing control points and time intervals, which allows predicting the future state of the diagnosed person according to the current assessments. Conclusions are made and directions for further research are determined.

KEYWORDS

probabilistic model open system probabilistic assessment destructive impact

Information References

Authors:

1. The Bonch-Bruevich Saint-Petersburg State University of Telecommunications (psychologist)

Sankt-Peterburg, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation

2. Budyonny Military Academy of the Signal Corps (professor)

Sankt-Peterburg, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation

3. Saint-Petersburg state university of aerospace instrumentation (department of design and technology of electronic and laser devices, senior lecturer)

Military academy of communications named after Marshal of the Soviet Union S.M. Budyonny (department of radio communications, professor)

Saint-Petersburg, Russian Federation

Type:

Article

Pages:

from 101 to 107

Status:

Published

Subject area:

UDC 001.891

Language:

Russian

Keywords:

probabilistic model, open system, probabilistic assessment, destructive impact

References

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